Demography and Population Studies
DPS610S
growth rate in percentage using the most preferred method of trend extrapolation. Please
show the formula and all calculation steps and round of your answers to two decimal points.
(S}
(c} Using the most preferred trend extrapolation projection method and the data in Table 1
above, find out what Namibia's population will be in 2030. Round off to the nearest whole
number.
(5)
(d} Population projection can be classified into two classes.
(i} Identify the projection class that urban planners are advised not to rely on.
(1)
(ii) Explain briefly, in two sentences, why urban planners are not encouraged to use the
projection class you identified in Question 2(c}(i).
(2}
(e} The central government is offering grants for one public bus for each growing settlement,
with an estimated population of 10,000 or more by 2030. You have been instructed by
your mayor to estimate the number of people who will be in your settlement in 2030, in
order to enable your settlement to apply for that grant. Based on your estimation, the
population of your settlement will decrease from 2,500 to 1,500 in 2030.
The mayor was not happy with your projections, and subsequently informed you that you
should change the population projections to reflect that your settlement will have over
10,000 people by 2030; in order to secure the central government grant for the public
bus. The mayor further threatened that he will bring you down through your Chief
Executive Officer if you did not change the population projections.
(i) From an ethical approach, indicate if you will decide to change or not change the
population projection figures.
(1}
(ii) Motivate the decision you provided in Question 2(d}(i}, in seven brief statements. (7)
(f} A town planner wishes to project the population of a town for the next decade, and is
not sure of what projection method to use. Outline seven factors that can affect the town
planner's choice of population projection methods.
(7}
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Second Opportunity/ Supplementary Examination Question Paper
Page 3 of 4 July 2025